Worksheet for Constructing the Prior Probability Distribution
for the Sample Survey Project

(Fill out a worksheet for each survey question you ask.)

Your name: _________________________________________

Question you will ask (with a yes or no response):

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In my problem, p is the proportion of all BGSU undergraduate students who

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Make a guess at what YOU think the value of p is: ____________________

We will assume in defining your prior that p can only be one of the values 0, .1, .2, ...., .8, .9, or 1.

Constructing your prior:

1. First fill out the whole number column.

   1. Assign the number 10 to the value of p that you think is most likely. Put this number in the table.

   2. Consider other values of p that are not the most likely. If you think another value of p is half as likely as the most likely value, give it a 5. If you think a value of p is 1/10th as likely as the most likely value, give it a 1. Continue until you've assigned whole numbers to all 11 values of p.

   3. If you give a value of p a 0, this means that you think that it is impossible that the proportion is this value.

2. Convert the whole numbers to probabilities.

   1. Find the sum of the whole numbers. Put the sum in the SUM row.

   2. Divide each whole number by the sum to get the probabilities. (The probabilities will add up to one.)