******************************************************************** ** macros.readme ** ******************************************************************** The two Minitab programs 'p_disc' and 'p_disc_p' will compute posterior probabilities and predictive probabilities, respectively, for a proportion using a discrete prior distribution. Section 2 describes the basic formula used by these programs, and Section 3.1 describes an application of the program 'p_disc_p' in predicting the number of home runs in future at-bats of a baseball player. These Minitab 'exec' macros are written for Release 10 of Minitab (Windows and Macintosh). A second version of the two programs has been written that will run on older releases of Minitab with character graphics. Contact Jim Albert at albert@math.bgsu.edu for copies of these programs. The program 'p_disc' will compute posterior probabilities for a proportion. The program assumes that the values of the proportion are placed in a column 'p' and the associated prior probabilities in the column 'prior'. Then the program is run by typing exec 'p_disc' One inputs the number of successes (s) and number of failures (f) of the binomial experiment. The output is the posterior probability distribution for the proportion and a line graph of this distribution. The posterior probabilities are stored in the column 'post'. The program 'p_disc_p' will compute predictive probabilities. The program assumes that the values of the proportion are placed in the column 'p' and the corresponding probabilities are in either the column 'prior' or the column 'post'. Run the program by typing exec 'p_disc_p; One inputs the location of the probabilities (in 'prior' or 'post'), the sample size of the future experiment, and the range of values (low and hi) for which predictive probabilities are to be computed. The output is the predictive distribution for the values of interest and a line graph of this distribution. The values and probabilities of the predictive distribution are stored in the columns 'succ' and 'pred'. The programs 'p_disc' and 'p_disc_p' are included in a package of Minitab macros for teaching Bayesian inference at an elementary level. The programs will be included in the book _Bayesian Computation Using Minitab_, to be published by Wadsworth in the spring of 1996. _______________________________________________________________________